Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer, the early Democratic primary front-runner.
In this era of extreme divisiveness, political pundits closely watch this year's congressional and state elections for signs of possible shifts in party control.
Amber Phillips of The Washington Post includes Michigan's open seat among 10 gubernatorial races to watch:
Democrats are bullish about taking back the governor's mansion here for a few reasons. Trump won the state by less than a percentage point, and outgoing Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is highly unpopular; his handling of the Flint water crisis might taint any Republican nominee.
Democrats are excited about Gretchen Whitmer, the former party leader in the state Senate who is the primary front-runner.
Thirty-six states elect governors Nov. 6. Republicans now have a near-record high of 33 governorships -- including the Michigan one held for two terms by Rick Snyder, who can't run again.
Three respected, nonpartisan analysts rate Michigan's outcome as a tossup. They are Charlie Cook (last August), Nathan L. Gonzales (last November) and University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato (also two months ago).
Phillips writes:
Of our top 10 governor races, eight are Republican-held seats. Most of those Republican governors are term-limited out in 2018, which is good news for Democrats, because one of the hardest thing to do in politics is kick out a sitting governor.
Any seat Democrats win back is critical for the future of the party. Many of the governors will be able to veto electoral maps drawn by state legislatures with new census data in 2021. And because Republicans also currently control a majority of state legislatures, the governor's mansion may be the only way for Democrats to stop maps that lock them out of power for the next decade.
