Michigan Covid variant cases climb, fueling jitters over possible spring surge

Daily Michigan case and death totals. (Source: New York Times)

As Michigan climbs to second in U.S. cases of the more contagious  B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant, health experts warn that loosened restrictions and over-confidence amid the vaccine rollout may lead to a surge similar to last fall's.

Covid cases in the state have been on the rise for the last three weeks, with rural counties hit particularly hard, The Detroit News reports. Missaukee County, for example, has reportedly seen one confirmed case for each of its 124 residents over the last 20 days.

"It’s going to be an interesting couple of months to see what happens," said Dr. Jennifer Morse, the medical director for 19 counties in northern Michigan. "Right now, we’re seeing just amazing amounts of outbreaks and cases."

Confirmed cases of the so-called UK variant meanwhile hit 624 Monday, Bridge Michigan says, making Michigan a national leader behind only Florida.

Expect the variant numbers to grow, health officials told Bridge Michigan on Tuesday, in part because the confirmed cases of the variant represent only a small sample of confirmed cases. And as the state moves into a season that includes spring breaks and increased travel, Michigan is approaching a “tipping point,” said Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, senior public health physician at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.

“What I’m concerned about is this confluence of events,” she said.

On the positive side, a growing number of people are becoming vaccinated across the state. As of Tuesday, more than 2 million Michiganders had been vaccinated, according to state data. And with warmer weather, more people will move back out into the open air, making it more difficult for the virus to spread, Bagdasarian said.

But at the same time, COVID fatigue continues to wear down patience to continue following COVID protocols, including social distancing and the wearing of masks. Spring break will undoubtedly mean out-of-state travel and increased transmission.

Restrictions have also been eased. In the past six weeks, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer reintroduced indoor dining, increased the number of people who can attend public gatherings, and pushed for schools to offer in-person learning.

Death tolls and hospitalizations have remained low despite the case increases. It's not yet clear if that means the vaccine is working to stave off the worst outcomes or if those metrics are lagging, as they have in the past.