Based on all the Florida Gulf Coast lawn signs in Palm Beach, Peggy Noonan thinks the NCAA basketball tournament is still FGCU's to lose. However, Nate Silver is sticking by his math-based projection that Louisville is most likely to win the college basketball national championship.
With the Final Four set, Silver recalculated his projections and he now gives Rick Pitino's Cardinals a 55% chance to cut down the nets next Monday night. Michigan is Silver's second-best bet to win the tourney. He projects Michigan has a 51.9% chance to beat Syracuse in the national semi-final Saturday night and a 22.1% to be national champs.
The Orangemen (sorry Mayor Bing) have just a 19% to win it all in Silver's projections, while the Cinderella Witchita State Shockers have just a 4.7% change to, umm, shock the world. That's better than they're looking in Karl Rove's bracket, which is still counting on a late rally from outstanding counties will push Ohio State over Witchia State in the Western bracket final.
