Going into yesterday's first round match-up against Valparaiso, Nate Silver gave his hometown Michigan State Spartans a slim 2.3% chance of winning the NCAA basketball tournament. After yesterday's solid 65-54 win, the Spartans have seen their fortunes rise on Silver's actuarial tables. They now have a 2.7% of going all the way.
Maybe, unlike Verne Lundquist, Silver appriciates first-half alley-oop plays.
Michigan, despite defeating North Dakota State last night in their first round game, saw their stock fall. Prior to the tournament's start, Silver gave the fourth-seeded Wolverines a 2.5% of winning the tournament. Today they have just a 2.2% chance.
Silver still rates Louisville as the favorite, giving the Cardinals a 26.1% chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta.
