It's still a long-shot for either Michigan or Michigan State to win the 2013 NCAA basketball national championship, but Nate Silver has upgraded both teams' chances following impressive second round wins Saturday.
Quick note to the NCAA: No one recognizes the play-in games as a tournament round. Stop trying to make that a thing. The New York Times, and other media outlets need to stop swallowing the PR spin from the NCAA's Squealer. The second round of the tournament is the one with 32 teams playing. The play-in games are prologue at best.
Anyway, heading into the Round of 32, Silver gave both Michigan and Michigan State about a 2% to win the tourney.
With the Sweet 16 field completed, Silver is projecting Michigan to have a 3.8% chance of winning it all.
The Wolverines play South bracket first-seed Kansas Friday. Silver gives them a 45.1% of winning that game and advancing to the Elite Eight. He also projects Michigan has a 17.7% chance of making the Final Four and an 8.9% of making it to the tournament final.
The election prognosticator and son of a Michigan State professor gives the Spartans a 3.5% chance of winning the national championship. As with UM, Silver has State as a slight underdog against Sweet 16 opponent Duke, giving Sparty a 45.7% of getting past the Blue Devils. Even math recognizes that "certainly, Duke is Duke." Silver also gives State has a 14% chance of making the Final Four and an 8.4% chance of getting to the tournament final.
Louisville remains Silver's favorite to win the national championship. He projects that Rick Pitino's team has a 32.4% chance of cutting down the nets to the tune of One Shining Moment. No word from Dick Morris, but we'll just assume that he feels like it's still Georgetown's to lose.
