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► Update: The Wolverines won by 86-57, the largest point differential in the series since 1996 (when U-M also won by 29 points).
In the heyday of "Saved By the Bell," the Bayside crew formed a pretty successful musical group called "Zack Attack." One of their main radio hits was the love ballad, "Did We Ever Have a Chance?" Yet even with the song debuting about 25 years ago, you have to wonder if Slater, Kelly, and Co. glimpsed into the future and penned the lyrics specifically to reference Zak Irvin and the on-again, off-again relationship he has with his jump shot.
"Thought we'd always be together,
I was sure our love would last...
Here I am, all alone, wonderin' what went wrong,
Did we ever have a chance?"
For the maize and blue, it is fairly simple: When Zak Irvin is engaged and making shots, the team is difficult to beat. When he is a complete non-factor, any chances of a win basically go out the window.
Zak Irvin
Over the last two games, Irvin has hoisted 18 shots from the field, making just two. Take into account the six turnovers over that same time frame and it’s no coincidence that Michigan dropped both contests, one a particularly crushing home loss to a very mediocre Ohio State team.
It’s concerning that a three-point shooter like Irvin has seen his accuracy drop so sharply during his time in Ann Arbor. As a freshman, he connected on 42.5% from downtown. Fast forward to his years as an upperclassman and that number has went the wrong way. As a junior, he sunk to a hair below 30%, and this year, when he should be carrying the team as a senior, he checks in at only 33%.
The best stretch of basketball for Michigan this season came way back in November with back-to-back blowout wins over Marquette and SMU. Irvin was all over the court, making exactly half of his shot attempts on his way to 16 points in each game. For the Wolverines to have a legitimate opportunity to knock off Tom Izzo’s crew, it’ll have to come with a major bounce-back effort from Mr. Irvin.
MSU Will Have the Best
Many times in an emotion-filled rivalry game, the deciding factor becomes, “Which team has the single best player?” In this case, the answer would have to be Michigan State, in the form of sensational freshman Miles Bridges.
After an injury derailed the middle of his season and delayed his introduction to Big Ten play, Bridges finally got back in the swing of things and has been rolling ever since. The 6-foot-7, 230-pound lefty, went for 24 and 9 at Ohio State. Then he poured in 33 (including five 3s) against Purdue. In the Spartans’ victory over Michigan just nine days ago, Bridges dominated the glass, collecting a game-high 13 rebounds.
While Mo Wagner and D.J. Wilson have had surprisingly productive campaigns, it appears they could be hitting a little bit of a late-season wall. Both forwards are playing far more than they did the year prior, and the increased workload sometimes rears its head in the schedule’s final stretch. Wilson played 25 minutes in the loss to Ohio State and managed just one rebound. If Bridges schools this duo and flirts with a 20-10 type game, it could be curtains for the Wolverines’ dim NCAA Tournament hopes.
MSU's Miles Bridges
Tough Sledding at Crisler
Not only does Michigan have to go on the road for 5 of their final 8 games, but the three home dates all present lofty challenges. The Wolverines, just 4-6 in Big Ten play, bring in the Spartans tonight (6-4), then conference-leading Wisconsin (9-1), and close out the home slate with rugged Purdue (8-3).
The chances of Michigan qualifying for an at-large NCAA berth took a serious hit after the Ohio State game, but there are still these three golden opportunities to defeat quality opponents, right in the cozy confines of Crisler Center. Beilein's group will likely have to go at least 5-3 down the stretch for Big Dance consideration. Capturing a trio of home victories would be a rocket-booster toward that effort. Michigan is looking to make the tournament for the sixth time in seven years.
All Spartans Lately
It feels like this rivalry, once dominated by the green and white, has evened out a bit. Bit when you take a closer look, the last few years have returned things to their natural order.
MSU Coach Tom Izzo
A week and a half ago in East Lansing, the Spartans mostly controlled the action on their way to an 8-point victory. Last year, there was just one UM-MSU meeting, at Crisler, with Michigan State coasting to a double-digit win. Of course, that contest was all about the unstoppable future NBA duo of Denzel Valentine (Bulls) and Bryn Forbes (Spurs) combining for 50 points. Much to the relief of John Beilein, neither player will have a factor on tonight’s outcome.
The year before that, it was more of the same. Two games, two Spartan wins, both by double-digit margins (though one went to OT).
You have to go back to 2014 for the last Blue victory in this intrastate clash. Michigan had an underrated, sometimes overlooked team that year. They still had Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, and even a healthy Caris LeVert (hard to believe). The Wolverines won both regular season matchups that season (lost in Big 10 tourn.) and very nearly made it back to a second consecutive Final Four, dropping a heartbreaker to Kentucky in the Midwest Regional Final.
All told, it’s been five in a row for Izzo and Co. (including tournament play) in the battle for state supremacy. With the Spartans young core only becoming more dangerous next winter, this is a critical game for Michigan to try and earn back a little respect. Otherwise, this thing could get out of control and Beilein might start to feel the seat rising in temperature underneath him.
A Prediction
While it’s been all Michigan State these last few years, and they’ve been sharper the last couple weeks, this is still not a Spartan team that’s proven it can go out on the road and consistently beat conference opponents. They did clip a moderately threatening Minnesota team by a point at the Barn, but that was followed by three consecutive L’s: at Penn State (in the Palestra), at Ohio State, and at Indiana. None of those teams has a .500 or better record in Big Ten play.
Irvin can’t possibly play worse than he has the last two games, and with Michigan’s season hanging in the balance, you have to believe Beilein will have his squad all-in for this primetime ESPN clash.
The experience for the Wolverines in the backcourt should be a factor. Derrick Walton, Jr. has raised his level of play and will likely do whatever is necessary to finish his career in this rivalry with a W.
Both teams are firmly on the NCAA bubble entering the season’s final month, but tonight it will be the kids from Ann Arbor earning revenge from their defeat just nine days ago.
► Prediction: Michigan 76, Michigan State 71
