Chad Selweski covered state and regional politics for The Macomb Daily for nearly 30 years, earning numerous awards. This is his second commentary for Deadline Detroit.
By Chad Selweski
Before the rubber has even hit the road, the campaign for a state sales tax hike may be crumbling like a Michigan roadway in springtime.
The road tax proposal slated for a special statewide election May 5 suffered a major setback recently when the top-notch campaign team leading the “vote yes” coalition walked away from the effort. The team was headed by Truscott Rossman, a Lansing-based consulting firm.
One of Gov. Rick Snyder’s top aides, who drove out the first string players, brought in replacements who alienated prominent Democratic supporters of the multi-faceted ballot proposal because of the strategists’ prior association with a 2012 anti-union initiative. The proposal calls for an increase in the sales tax to 7 percent to help fix our sorry roads.
Chad Selweski
The conservative forces opposing the ballot measure have a much simpler message: “No more taxes.” A recent poll showed that the proposal may already be heading over a cliff.
The Snyder administration not only has to worry about Democratic support on this initiative, but the opposition within the party from the conservatives who strongly oppose a tax hike and are itching to start a war within the GOP.
One Republican official bluntly, if not eloquently, summed up the views expressed by many GOP loyalists privately: “It (the tax proposal) is a loser. That’s why people are dropping out like flies.”
Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO of the lead firm, Truscott Rossman, that bowed out, flatly denies that the bipartisan campaign team quit because they faced a losing proposition.
She said internal data delineated a “path to success” for the campaign advisers, the same four-firm group that scored a resounding victory last fall on a statewide ballot proposal to modify business property taxes.Of course, it should be note that organized opposition in that endeavor was nonexistent.
“To say that we couldn’t stick it out … that is an absurd assumption. This is the same winning team that got the PPT (Personal Property Tax) plan passed. We took that on when it had just 39 percent support. We relished this challenge,” said Rossman-McKinney, a 25-year veteran of Lansing politics.
Problem With Ad Firm
Those familiar with the campaign’s bumpy road say that Terri Reid, Snyder’s director of external affairs, instigated the breakup.
Reid objected to the inclusion of an advertising firm, Joe Slade White & Co. of New York, which has worked exclusively for Democrats, including former governor Jennifer Granholm. Reid took control and brought in WWP Strategies of Lansing, an advertising/consulting company with a conservative track record.
“I think the political forces aligned on both sides of the ball are very interesting,” said Lansing political consultant TJ Bucholz, who is not in the mix. “You’ve got, ostensibly, a Republican civil war playing itself out on the anti-tax side.”
In the coming weeks, TV viewers will be inundated with ads for and against the tax plan. Estimates of the amount that will be spent on the campaign range from $15 million to $30 million.
Those lining up to take a whack at the road tax include John Yob, Snyder’s former campaign guru, a PAC associated with the tea party and possibly the powerful Americans for Prosperity, a group funded in part by the infamous billionaire Koch brothers.
Adding to all of these subplots is speculation about Snyder’s health. If the blood clot discovered in the governor’s already-injured leg keeps him off the campaign trail for any length of time, the tax proposal’s top spokesman will be left on the side of the road.
And yet, there’s more. Many of the lawmakers – Democrats and Republicans – who voted to put the one penny tax (a 17 percent increase) on the ballot remain suspiciously quiet as the election approaches, failing to publicly endorse the proposal.
Most business groups that repeatedly called for an infusion of funding to fix Michigan’s crumbling roads and bridges in the past now seem unwilling to take a stand.
Gov. Rick Snyder
As for the jumbled anti-tax campaign, Rossman-McKinney expects that it won’t self-destruct because “they will have consistency of message, even if it’s not a coordinated message.”
Still, she went into this weekend predicting that the tax plan has a 55-45 percent likelihood of passage because a special election brings out mostly serious, knowledgeable voters who believe that action is needed to fix the roads, and no backup plan exists.
Maybe, but on Monday morning a lot of political insiders, given those odds, might be lining up at Rossman-McKinney’s door to place their bets.
